IMD data show India received 15% less rainfall than normal between 1 June and 22 September, making this the weakest monsoon since 2009 if the deficit persists.

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• Between 1 June and 22 September 2026, India received 706.9 mm of rainfall against a normal of 832.4 mm, a 15% deficit, according to IMD.
• About 41% of the country's area had deficient seasonal rainfall, while 42% was in the normal category.
• If the shortfall persists, this would be the weakest monsoon since 2009, when rainfall was about 18% below normal.
• IMD had forecast a 10% shortfall in May, so the actual deficit is larger than its initial projection.
• The deficit is linked to a strengthening El Niño, an unfavourable Madden-Julian Oscillation, fewer low-pressure systems and long dry spells.
• Conditions became favourable for withdrawal from parts of west Rajasthan around 19 September, slightly later than the normal date of 17 September.
• The retreat moves gradually eastward and southward, and the monsoon usually exits the country only after the beginning of October.
• As of 11 September, kharif sowing stood at 1,096.49 lakh hectares against 1,112.54 lakh hectares a year earlier, a fall of 16.05 lakh hectares.
• About 55 to 60% of India's net sown area is rainfed, making agriculture heavily dependent on the timing and distribution of monsoon rain.
• Experts warn of worsening soil moisture stress, kharif crop losses and risks for the upcoming rabi season.
• The deficit has raised concerns over food inflation and rural incomes.

Tags: Monsoon2026, ElNino, IMD