A Climate Impact Lab report released on 23 September estimates the 2026 El Niño could cause 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide by February 2027, with India among the worst hit.

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• The Climate Impact Lab report, released on 23 September 2026, projects 451,000 additional deaths from extreme hot days linked to this year's "Super El Niño."
• The estimate covers September 2026 to February 2027 and is measured against average conditions over 1996 to 2025.
• India is projected to see about 15,800 additional heat-related deaths, with nearly half expected between December and February.
• Brazil is the worst affected in South America, with a projected 13,300 deaths.
• Africa's Sahel region is projected at 66,800 deaths, including 31,400 in Nigeria.
• The deaths are expected to be concentrated overwhelmingly in the Global South.
• The report says these figures come on top of impacts from droughts, wildfires and flooding expected from hotter temperatures and shifting rainfall.
• Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone said the report shows where emergency action can save tens of thousands of lives.
• The report points to adaptation measures such as early warning systems, cooling centres and protections for outdoor workers.
• Super El Niño is an informal term for exceptionally strong El Niño conditions, marked by unusual warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
• El Niño has been linked to India's weak 2026 monsoon, with rainfall about 15% below normal up to 22 September.

Tags: SuperElNino, ClimateImpactLab, HeatMortality