Fitch raised its FY27 India growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.4% and expects the RBI to hike rates in October, as S&P and the OECD also upgraded projections.

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• Fitch Ratings raised India's FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.9%, up from the 6.4% it projected in June.
• It cited 7.8% growth in the June quarter as evidence of resilience despite the shock from the US-Iran war.
• Fitch noted a strong deterioration in India's terms of trade during the first half of 2026.
• It expects private investment to rise by more than 10%, with non-food credit growth reaching 19% year-on-year in July.
• Fitch expects the RBI to raise rates by 25 basis points in October to 5.5%, then to 5.75% in early 2027, before easing to 5.5% in 2028.
• It flagged slower PMI-based expansion in manufacturing and services, and said below-normal monsoon rains will weigh on agriculture and rural demand.
• Rising inflation is expected to constrain real incomes and consumer spending, according to Fitch.
• S&P Global Ratings raised its FY27 India forecast to 7% from 6.6% and also sees a 25 bps RBI rate hike.
• Moody's Ratings had projected 7% FY27 growth for India the previous week.
• The OECD projects growth easing from 7.8% in FY26 to 7.1% in FY27 and 6.5% in FY28, the highest FY27 figure among these agencies.
• The OECD expects reduced purchasing power to weaken growth in the second half of the year before a gradual recovery in 2027.

Tags: FitchRatings, IndiaGDPForecast, RBIRateHike