The UN Environment Programme's latest assessment concludes that holding warming to 1.5°C without overshoot is no longer possible, shifting focus to a return pathway.

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• UNEP released the Emissions Gap Report 2026, titled "The Point of Return", on October 21, its 17th edition.
• The report says the chance of holding warming below 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot has been lost.
• It models a lowest-possible overshoot scenario, with peak warming around mid-century held to 1.7-1.8°C and a return to 1.5°C by 2100 at 50% probability.
• If current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8°C this century and keep rising afterwards.
• Projections are worse than last year's, owing to the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions.
• The return pathway requires global emissions to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels.
• Existing national pledges are reported to deliver only a 5-8% cut by 2030.
• By September 1, 2026, 124 countries covering 75% of global emissions had submitted new nationally determined contributions.
• Global greenhouse gas emissions dipped slightly in 2025, but CO2 from fossil fuels kept rising.
• Every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels raises peak warming by about 0.1°C.
• UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the emissions gap is now a leadership gap.
• The findings will feed into COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, in November 2026.