Three UNFCCC reports released ahead of COP31 in Antalya find climate planning is broadening, but projected emission cuts remain far below what science requires.

BulletsIn

• UN Climate Change released the 2026 NDC Synthesis Report, BTR Synthesis Report and NAPs Progress Report ahead of COP31, to be held in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20.
• The NDC report examines 127 new NDCs representing 154 Parties, recorded between January 1, 2024 and August 31, 2026.
• These NDCs cover about 70 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions.
• Implementing them is projected to bring global emissions to about 6 per cent below 2019 levels by 2035.
• Full implementation, including conditional elements, would raise that reduction to about 9 per cent.
• Most new NDCs link to long-term net-zero targets between 2040 and 2070, the majority for 2050.
• Implementing NDCs and long-term targets implies best-estimate warming of 1.7 to 2.3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
• Returning warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would require substantial additional emission cuts in the coming years.
• Of the 94 per cent of Parties that cited capacity-building in new NDCs, 74 per cent said implementation depends on receiving such support.
• The BTR Synthesis Report notes that 137 Parties have now submitted Biennial Transparency Reports, covering about 85 per cent of global emissions.
• Adaptation is emerging as a central focus in countries' transparency reports.
• UNFCCC chief Simon Stiell has said COP31 must help countries move from pledges to implementation.