India’s retail inflation likely dropped to 3.27% in April 2024, its lowest since mid-2019, as food prices cooled further, according to a Reuters poll of 43 economists. Despite summer heatwaves, a strong harvest helped stabilize essential food costs. This marks the third consecutive month inflation has remained below the RBI’s 4% target. The official CPI data will be released on May 12.

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• April inflation likely fell to 3.27%, lowest since mid-2019
• Food prices eased despite intense summer heat
• Inflation stayed below RBI’s 4% target for third month
• Reuters poll surveyed 43 economists (May 5–8)
• Vegetable, pulse, cereal, fruit prices saw month-on-month drop
• Core inflation estimated at 4.0%, down from 4.1% in March
• WPI inflation expected to ease to 1.76% from 2.05%
• Gold prices rose ~5% in April due to global trade worries
• Eased inflation may give RBI room to cut interest rates
• Strong monsoon forecast may boost rural demand, farm output