IMD said El Niño pushed all-India June-September rainfall to 87 per cent of the long-period average, with below-normal rain also forecast for October.

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• The India Meteorological Department said the 2026 southwest monsoon ended with all-India rainfall at 87 per cent of the long-period average (LPA).
• Cumulative June-September rainfall was about 759.4 mm against a normal of roughly 868.6 mm, a shortfall of around 13 per cent.
• It is the weakest season since 2015, the fourth lowest since 2001 and the 13th lowest since 1901.
• IMD attributed the deficit to El Niño conditions, the main driver cited in its seasonal outlook.
• Southern and eastern India were worst affected, with seasonal rainfall at 76 per cent and 74 per cent of the LPA respectively.
• Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 recorded deficient rainfall, 18 recorded normal rainfall and one recorded excess.
• Withdrawal began from parts of west Rajasthan on September 19, against a normal date of September 17.
• October rainfall is likely to be below normal, at less than 85 per cent of the LPA.
• Most of the country is also expected to receive below-normal rain during October-December, except parts of northwest India and southern peninsular India.
• IMD expects El Niño to peak in November and gradually weaken from March onwards.
• A positive Indian Ocean Dipole index of 0.76 could partly offset the adverse impact of El Niño in the coming days.
• The rainfall deficit has coincided with lower kharif sowing compared with last year, putting the rabi season under watch.