Retail inflation crossed the RBI's 6% ceiling for the first time under the new 2024-base CPI series, driven by food prices, weeks after the central bank raised the repo rate.

BulletsIn

• The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation reported provisional CPI inflation of 6.09% for October 2026, up from 5.54% in September.
• The figure crosses the RBI's upper tolerance limit of 6% and is the first such breach under the revised CPI series with base year 2024.
• Under the earlier series with 2012 as base, inflation had last breached the limit in October 2024, at about 6.2%.
• Rural inflation stood at 6.63% and urban inflation at 5.41% in October.
• Food inflation accelerated to 8.94% in October from 7.74% in September.
• Onions, garlic and ginger saw sharp price increases, with onion prices rising by more than 116% year on year.
• Food and beverages make up nearly 40% of the CPI basket, which is why food prices drive the headline number.
• On 7 October 2026 the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee unanimously raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, its first hike since February 2023, and changed its stance to calibrated tightening.
• Governor Sanjay Malhotra said rate cuts are off the table in the near term and the next policy move can only be a hike or a pause.
• The RBI projects average inflation of 6% for October-December and has raised its 2026-27 retail inflation forecast to 5.2% from 5%.
• Malhotra has flagged the risk of a weak monsoon and stronger El Nino conditions, and the next MPC review is scheduled for 2 to 4 December 2026.

Tags: CPIInflation, RBIMonetaryPolicy, FoodInflation