India’s wholesale inflation may soon cross 10% as rising fuel prices, global crude oil pressures and supply disruptions intensify concerns over economic growth and inflation stability.

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• A research report by Systematix warned that India’s WPI inflation crossing the 10% mark has become a realistic near-term economic possibility.
• India’s Wholesale Price Index inflation surged to 8.3% in April 2026, marking the highest wholesale inflation level recorded during the past 42 months.
• The fuel and power segment recorded a sharp inflation rise of 24.71%, mainly driven by increasing global crude oil prices and domestic fuel price adjustments.
• Petrol and diesel prices were recently increased by ₹3 per litre, with analysts expecting additional fuel price hikes in the coming months.
• The report estimated that current fuel price hikes recover only 7% to 8% of accumulated oil marketing under-recoveries worth nearly ₹1.8 trillion.
• Rising crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, El Niño risks and fertiliser shortages may further increase food inflation and agricultural production costs.
• Experts warned that persistent inflation, slowing growth and widening trade deficits could create stagflation-like conditions and pressure the Indian economy during FY27.
• The report stated that higher inflation may force the Reserve Bank of India to tighten monetary policy and increase interest rates again.