The India Meteorological Department expects the southwest monsoon to retreat from the remaining parts of the country and northeast monsoon rains to start over south peninsular India within two to three days of its 12 October bulletin.

BulletsIn

• On 12 October, the India Meteorological Department said conditions were becoming favourable for further withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from the remaining parts of the country.
• It expected northeast monsoon rains to commence over the south peninsula during the next two to three days.
• The withdrawal line then passed through 27.0°N/90.5°E, Kolkata, Angul, Khammam, Honavar and 14.0°N/73.0°E.
• With the onset of the northeast monsoon, a prolonged wet spell is likely over south peninsular India for the following five to six days.
• Isolated heavy rainfall is expected over Kerala and Mahe, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, and coastal Andhra Pradesh during 15 to 18 October.
• North Interior Karnataka may see isolated heavy rainfall on 17 and 18 October, and Rayalaseema on 15 and 16 October.
• A low-pressure area was expected to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal around 13 October under an upper-air cyclonic circulation.
• Very heavy rainfall of 12 to 20 cm was recorded over Jammu and Kashmir in the 24 hours to 8:30 am on 12 October, with Jammu recording 19 cm.
• A Western Disturbance lay as a cyclonic circulation over northwest Uttar Pradesh, and hailstorm activity was likely over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab on 14 and 15 October.
• IMD classes rainfall of 64.5 to 115.5 mm as heavy, 115.6 to 204.4 mm as very heavy and above 204.4 mm as extremely heavy.