After a monsoon that ended 13 per cent short, the weather office expects most of India to stay drier than normal through October and the October-December period.

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• The India Meteorological Department issued its post-monsoon seasonal outlook and October 2026 rainfall and temperature outlook on 30 September 2026.
• All-India rainfall in October is likely to be below normal, at less than 85 per cent of the long-period average.
• Most parts of the country are expected to receive below-normal rain in October, except some areas of Northwest India, southern peninsular India and isolated parts of East India.
• Rainfall over South Peninsular India during October to December is most likely to be normal, at 88 to 112 per cent of the long-period average.
• The long-period average for the south peninsula's post-monsoon rainfall, based on 1971 to 2020 data, is about 334.1 mm.
• IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said most parts of the country should see below-normal rain through October to December, apart from parts of Northwest India and the southern peninsula.
• Maximum temperatures are forecast to be above normal across most parts of the country in October.
• The 2026 monsoon ended at 87 per cent of the long-period average, the worst since 2015, with monthly rainfall of 65 per cent in June, 101 per cent in July, 84 per cent in August and 92 per cent in September.
• The season recorded 77 low pressure system days against a normal of 57.
• Long dry spells in states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka have raised questions about final kharif yields.
• IMD said El Niño is set to peak in November and will issue its November outlook towards the end of October.