The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts an above-normal monsoon in 2025, expected to increase agricultural production and rural demand while helping control inflation, says a Crisil report released recently.

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• IMD predicts 106% of long-period average rainfall during the June-September southwest monsoon season, marking the second consecutive above-normal monsoon year.
• Above-normal rainfall is likely to support healthy crop output, strengthen rural demand, and stabilize food prices.
• Agriculture and allied sectors grew by 4.6% in FY25, exceeding the 4% decadal average.
• Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) dropped to 3.2% in April 2025, driven by ample food supplies.
• June 2025 is expected to receive over 108% of normal rainfall, aiding sowing and replenishing water resources.
• Central and South Peninsular India will likely see above-normal rainfall; Northwest India normal rainfall; Northeast India below normal.
• Balanced temporal and regional rainfall distribution is critical for overall agricultural growth.
• The report warns of climate risks like unseasonal rains, heatwaves, cyclones, and floods during and after the monsoon.
• FY25 saw vegetable prices surge due to weather disruptions, contributing to 41% of food inflation despite good foodgrain production.