India’s GDP is projected to grow to $5.7 trillion by fiscal 2028, surpassing Germany and Japan to become the third-largest economy in the world, according to a new report by Morgan Stanley. This growth will be fueled by strong macroeconomic policies, improved infrastructure, and a rising consumer market.

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• India’s GDP is expected to reach $4.7 trillion by 2026, overtaking Japan to become the fourth-largest economy.
• By 2028, India will surpass Germany, becoming the third-largest global economy with $5.7 trillion GDP.
• India’s global GDP share is set to rise from 3.5% in 2023 to 4.5% by 2029.
• The country’s economic rise is attributed to macroeconomic stability, better infrastructure, and a growing entrepreneurial sector.
• Projected GDP for 2035 ranges from $6.6 trillion (bearish) to $10.3 trillion (bullish).
• Per capita GDP will grow from $2,514 in 2025 to between $4,247 (bearish) and $6,706 (bullish) by 2035.
• Despite growth, India will remain below the middle-income status threshold of $10,000 per capita GDP by 2035.
• Short-term growth projections show a 6.3% GDP increase in FY 2025 and 6.5% in FY 2026.
• Factors driving growth include a rising manufacturing sector, digital transformation, and energy transition.
• India’s economic journey includes impressive historical progress, moving from 12th largest in 1990 to 5th largest in 2023.