India’s economy likely saw a recovery in the final quarter of 2024, but future growth remains uncertain due to risks from global trade disruptions. GDP growth is estimated at 6.2% for the December quarter, but it still falls short of the central bank’s target.

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• India’s GDP likely grew 6.2% in the December quarter.
• Growth surpassed the previous quarter’s 5.4%, but fell short of the RBI’s 6.8% estimate.
• The government lowered its 2024 GDP growth estimate to 6.4%.
• Growth for the next fiscal year is expected to stay below 7%.
• Despite strong growth, India’s economy needs 8% growth to meet Modi’s 2047 vision.
• Government spending on infrastructure and rural consumption boosted growth last quarter.
• India faces exposure to potential trade disruptions from US tariffs under President Trump.
• Economists predict weak exports and slow urban consumption could slow future growth.
• The government sped up infrastructure spending, with a 2.7 trillion rupee spend in Q4 2024.
• The Finance Minister announced 1 trillion rupees in tax cuts, aiming to stimulate the economy.