Two back-to-back Bay of Bengal cyclones reached the Andhra Pradesh coast in late October and early November, yet the IMD still expects below-normal rainfall in November under strong El Niño conditions.

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• Cyclone Arnab made landfall on the Andhra Pradesh coast around October 28, 2026, and NDRF reported three deaths and damage to 31 houses in the state.
• Heavy rain linked to Arnab also triggered a landslide in Odisha, where a search began for 12 missing people.
• A second depression formed over the Bay of Bengal and developed into Cyclone Murasu, a name contributed by India, the second cyclonic storm over the Bay of Bengal this year.
• IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra forecast Murasu winds of 80-90 km/h gusting to 100 km/h, with landfall on Andhra Pradesh's coast on the morning of November 3.
• IMD's November 3 bulletin said Murasu weakened into a cyclonic storm over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and was expected to weaken into a deep depression by midnight.
• Despite the cyclones, IMD maintained a drier-than-usual outlook for November 2026, with most of the country likely to see a rainfall deficit.
• South Peninsular India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall, under 77 percent of the long-period average (LPA).
• Maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to stay above normal in most regions, except the Himalayan foothills and central and eastern India.
• Strong El Niño conditions are expected to persist, while the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral.
• The northeast monsoon set in on October 15 over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, south interior Karnataka and Kerala-Mahe.
• The northeast monsoon has been normal to above normal since onset, while the southwest monsoon withdrew from the whole country around October 14-15, which IMD called near-normal.

Tags: CycloneMurasu, NortheastMonsoon, ElNino