The India Meteorological Department expects November rainfall to fall short across the southern peninsula, with prevailing El Nino conditions weighing on the northeast monsoon.

BulletsIn

• The IMD forecast below-normal November rainfall across South Peninsular India, covering Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka.
• Rainfall for the region is expected to be less than 77% of the normal baseline of 118.7 mm for November.
• The forecast was reported on 31 October 2026, as Cyclone Murasu was forming over the Bay of Bengal.
• IMD said prevailing El Nino conditions are likely to gradually reduce rainfall intensity during November.
• Winter and early spring weather patterns linked to El Nino are expected to persist until March.
• Below-normal rainfall is forecast across most of the country, except parts of central, northwest and northeast India that may see normal to above-normal rain.
• Murasu was described as the second cyclone of the northeast monsoon season, and its impact on Tamil Nadu was expected to be limited.
• An IMD official said India normally sees four to five cyclones a year, with three to four forming between October and December.
• One or two cyclones typically form between April and May, the official added.
• The official said the overall frequency of cyclones has declined over the long term, but the number of intense cyclones has stayed stable or may increase.
• Short-term bursts remain likely despite the below-normal outlook, with IMD's 5 November bulletin showing fairly widespread to widespread rain over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on 7-8 November.