The October 2026 Bulletin finds India resilient amid West Asia-driven inflation pressures, while only about three-quarters of the 125 basis point repo cut reached fresh-loan rates.

BulletsIn

• The Reserve Bank of India released its October 2026 Bulletin on October 23, with two speeches, four articles and current statistical data.
• The articles cover the state of the economy, lending-rate transmission, the NBFC sector in 2025 and nowcasting of state-level activity.
• Renewed West Asia tensions and supply-chain disruptions have amplified global inflation pressures, prompting major central banks to raise policy rates.
• High-frequency indicators across industry and services continue to show strength in India.
• Headline CPI inflation edged up in September on food, fuel and core items.
• Double-digit growth in merchandise exports in the first half of 2026-27 helped narrow the trade deficit.
• Inflows under the FCNR(B) swap window added to foreign exchange reserves.
• The repo rate was cut by 125 basis points between February 2025 and March 2026, but the weighted average lending rate on fresh rupee loans fell 93 basis points.
• That 93 basis point fall splits into an 80 basis point interest rate effect and a 13 basis point composition effect.
• NBFC credit grew at a double-digit pace through December 2025, with improving asset quality and a rising share of bank borrowing in funding.
• A fourth article uses satellite night-time lights and Google Trends to nowcast economic activity in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat.
• Bulletin articles reflect the authors' views and not necessarily those of the Reserve Bank.