The Monetary Policy Committee decides on October 7 with the repo rate at 5.25%, as rising inflation, costlier crude and global rate increases revive hike expectations.

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• The Reserve Bank of India's six-member Monetary Policy Committee will meet from October 5 to 7, with its policy decision due on October 7.
• The repo rate stands at 5.25%, unchanged in the last four reviews after a cumulative 125 basis point cut during 2025.
• The standing deposit facility rate is 5.00%, while the marginal standing facility rate and Bank Rate are both 5.50%.
• A hike would be the first since February 2023, when the repo rate was raised by 25 basis points to 6.5%.
• Eight of ten economists in a Business Standard poll expect a 25 basis point hike to 5.50%, while nearly 60% did so in a Reuters poll.
• Retail inflation rose to 4.82% in August, staying above the RBI's 4% medium-term target for a third consecutive month.
• Wholesale price inflation climbed to 9.92% in August from 9.78% in July, driven partly by higher energy prices.
• The Finance Ministry's September review flagged high crude prices and geopolitical tensions as risks that could raise imported inflation and pressure the rupee.
• The US Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and the Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to 1.25%.
• The rupee has weakened by about 6% against the US dollar this year, and foreign investors have been pulling money from Indian equities and debt.
• Minutes of the August meeting showed some members were open to higher rates if inflationary pressures broaden.
• Governor Sanjay Malhotra has said the RBI can use bond sales and foreign exchange swaps to manage surplus liquidity and align overnight rates with the repo rate.