The southwest monsoon is retreating from northwest India after a deficient June-September season, the weakest in over a decade.

BulletsIn

• India received 759.4 mm of rainfall between June and September 2026, about 87% of the long-period average of 868.6 mm.
• The roughly 13% deficit makes 2026 the fourth-lowest monsoon since 2001, the 13th-lowest since 1901 and the weakest since 2015.
• June was the weakest month, with rainfall at only 65% of normal, while September ended at 92% of normal, within the IMD's normal category.
• The monsoon set in over the Andaman Sea on May 16, six days ahead of schedule, but its advance over Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha was delayed by seven to 10 days.
• El Niño conditions prevailed, though 77 low-pressure-system days, against a normal of about 57, helped limit the shortfall.
• The IMD's updated pre-season forecast had projected 90% of the long-period average, with a model error of plus or minus 4%.
• Withdrawal began from west Rajasthan on September 19, two days later than the normal date of September 17.
• By September 23, the monsoon had withdrawn from most of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, the entire Delhi region, and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.
• As of October 2, the withdrawal line passes through Gurdaspur, Chandigarh, Muzaffarnagar, Aligarh, Dholpur, Udaipur, Deesa and Naliya.
• The IMD says conditions are favourable for further withdrawal from the remaining parts of Punjab and Haryana within the next 24 hours.
• The IMD's latest bulletin also forecasts isolated thunderstorm and lightning over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during October 6-7.
• Withdrawal from the entire country is declared only after October 1, once the circulation pattern shifts away from the southwesterly wind regime.